Is Avatar a flop in the making?

My first impression right after the trailer is, regretfully... almost.

It still can manage to do some nice b.o., but on the reviews issue, it better have something to say, 'cause everything else looks nice but familiar and far away from the term "breathtaking" or "groundbreaking" so much promised by marketing.

Don't need to link the trailer, it's everywhere already.

What do I see coming?

That these two guys can end picking up, finally, their richly deserved Oscars next year, for playing Holmes and Watson. Think about it twice, and that the movie, a likely crowd-pleaser, will be an acting duel between the two, released on Xmas day.

Think about it.

Up

Let's face it, you don't really want to acknowledge it.

Up is a vibrant masterpiece, full of emotion and that succeeds in what no other Pixar movie could, yet. To get you, a grown man or woman, to cry.

Up, is probably on its way to be the best film of 2009. And the first Pixar movie to be truly deserving of earning Best Picture at Oscar night.

Playing God: the could have been...

Let your imagination flow, every Oscar aficionado is doing so right now... which Best Picture noms we have been denied without a 10 nominees shortlist? Take this, of course with a grain of salt.

2008, both Wall·E and The Dark Knight would have been in the mix. Doubt, most likely, too. The Dark Knight would have had a bigger chance of actually winning the top award with 9 noms, a Best Director snub and being the film that clearly would have stand out of the rest, in my honest opinion. The votes that went by default to Slumdog Millionaire would have spread, specially with Wall·E stealing some of them or being available in the shortlist... I mean, who would vote for the win to Slumdog Millionaire, in front of Wall·E, which is even more feelgood?

2007, Hairspray would have probably been nomm'd, its only nom. This is a year I don't think the actual winner would have been damaged from more competitors for the last hurdle, No Country for Old Men's only enemy was There Will Be Blood, and still, it was a movie too grim in comparison.

2006, Borat would have been one of the nominees. United 93, probably too. I'm not so certain about Children of Men, to be frank. The Departed probably would have lost to Little Miss Sunshine, its real competition. Pan's Labyrinth... would have been nom'd.

2005, Brokeback Mountain would have won. With anti-Brokebacks not having a clear favorite to concentrate their votes to, Crash would have it hard to stand out.

2004, Clint would kiss goodbye to his Million Dollar Baby's Oscars. With more to choose from, the more you think about a film before deciding, and M$B's obvious cheats would have been more obvious - and irritant.

2003, no change for winner. It was built through 3 years campaign... but some room for a surprise coming from Lost in Translation, that's for sure.

2002 Talk to Her would have been nom'd.

2001 I doubt Mulholland Drive would have made the cut, but we can dream of it, can't we?. In exchange, Memento, Training Day, Artificial Intelligence... A Beautiful Mind wouldn't have won. I mean, ANY of the rest would have been better, that would have been too much...

2000 Requiem for a Dream, Cast Away, Before Night Falls...

1999 The most interesting year on the last decade for this issue: The Matrix! Fight Club! The Blair Witch Project! Magnolia! Being John Malkovich! South Park: Bigger Longer and Uncut! The Talented Mr. Ripley!

And some story for beginners: no, Blade Runner wasn't well received at the time, so it would have had a snowball in hell's chances to earn a Best Picture nom.

10 nominees for Best Picture...

It's official. So count Up and Avatar now as almost locks for Best Picture. Nine, Invictus and The Lovely Bones as highly likely. Precious, almost there, too. We're looking to just 3-4 empty spots, my friends, the fillers.

Another D.F.C.; Inglorious reviews for Tarantino

Not that he would care that much. He's already has his Oscar and he's one of the few that actually makes movies for pleasure: Allen, Carpenter, Tarantino... they don't really need the money and they basically and freely make the movies they want to make. So Pitt, Myers, Kruger and the rest of the pack would go to the Red Carpet as guest or host of some award, at best, on 2009.


http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/inglourious_basterds/

13 reviews out there yet, 63% positive but less than a 6.0 average... tsk, tsk. Buzz all over the web say it's slow and boring... situation may change, still, but this movie needed a smash hit as Sam Raimi's "Drag me to hell" is having, 100% fresh and 8.1 average, out of - also - 13 reviews. And even better is "Up", with 100% out of 22 reviews and also 8.1 average. So, in this situation, I don't see how "Inglorious Basterds" may sneak in at any cathegory at the Oscar race. I'd count in "Drag me to Hell" and "Up" as dark horses for Picture/Director noms and contenders for Screenplay, though.

The Cruz 2009's scenario.

Oh, a few years ago, everybody in the net was harrassing Penelope Cruz for her american roles, worldwide. Now she's a double nominee, 1 Oscar winner facing a year of a possible double nom, as she's among the frontrunners for not one, but two cathegories. Back to back Oscars aren't even out of question just yet, even if it is an extremely difficult scenario.

Will she be nominated for "Broken Embraces"? She, once more, shines in Almodovar's hands. She performs in her mother language and goes through a tour de force... and has almost every little plot device that Oscar would go crazy for. The AMPAS is fond, lately, to reward non anglo-performers speaking (at least, partially) in their mother language (Cotillard, Cruz... will the trend continue?)

Will she be nominated for "Nine"? Her role - I've read - is the biggest award winner of the original play, and normally that translates into the movie adaptation (Viola Davis, anyone?)... but inner competition is, simply beyond limits: Sophia Loren (role lenght compensated by her mythical aura), Dame Judi Dench, Marion Cotillard and Nicole Kidman (who they haven't nominated in years). They could perfectly end cancelling each other out... if you want my opinion, Dench and Loren would be the threats, all the rest have been awarded in the last 6 years, and Cruz is the only one that hasn't sang before in an american movie - she did on "La Niña de tus Ojos" (1998) and won both the Goya and EFA Award for that performance. And no, in "Volver" it wasn't her real voice.

Will she join the double nominee club? It wouldn't be a surprise. At all. But chances are, if a lead actress nom seems safe, they would openly embrace her "Nine" co-stars more openly.

Will she be double snubbed? It seems difficult but also possible at this point of the race. They may consider that her Oscar win was enough last year nd that she still needs more credit before a second Oscar... which a double nom would put extremely close to her.

Back to back Oscars? Is she that hot in Hollywood? Is she a female Tom Hanks? Knowing that Meryl Streep is on the 2009's mix, it feels almost impossible that they would award Cruz again - specially in leading - having Meryl still waiting for her 3rd.

My predix - at this point: Lead Actress nom for "Broken Embraces" and no win. But if she choses carefully her projects, she'll be winning a second in less than five years, most likely for another Almodovar movie.